I’ve been dreading this week since the fantasy draft season even as I’ve tried my hardest to forget it was coming. Now that it’s here, it’s worse than I imagined. Philadelphia, Buffalo and Minnesota form the core of my best fantasy rosters, and these teams being on bye is putting my SuperFlex teams (especially) in dire straits. Here’s hoping that your Jalen Hurts/Kirk Cousins teams are playing Josh Allen teams in Week 7 (I have one such matchup). The sudden absence of not only these reliable QBs, but Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, A.J. Brown, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Cooper Kupp is a shock to the system, an acute loss. Neuroscience research shows that social or emotional losses can be felt and interpreted by the brain just like physical pain, so don’t feel too guilty about wallowing a bit this week.
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I find there are two general ways to react: give up, take the L, you can probably afford it if you’re that affected by the byes this week… OR… get scrappy, hit the waivers, take chances with your bench. There are some widely available players in great matchups this weekend, and although they’re a far cry from the guys you’re missing, some of them will hit if you have players to drop for them. On the other hand, there are fewer big names playing this week and some of them are in for a tough time, but it’s more important than ever to not overthink starting certain struggling stars.
Don’t Overthink
Christian McCaffrey: I heard about people considering benching McCaffrey last week amidst the trade rumors and the QB shift to P.J. Walker. Hopefully his continued productivity in Week 6 (69 rushing yards, seven catches on eight targets for 89 yards) has put any concerns to rest, but just in case you’re looking at a matchup with Tampa Bay and thinking about going with someone else, don’t! Carolina is clearly a disaster, ranking in the bottom five in points scored, but Top 10 in points allowed. And the Buccaneers are the worst fantasy matchup for running backs, but as we know, McCaffrey is not the typical RB. He has basically been the entire offense, and now the Panthers have sent Robbie Anderson off to Arizona. I don’t expect a ceiling game from McCaffrey this weekend, but I do think he’ll be better than almost anyone on waivers or your bench.
CeeDee Lamb: Lamb (and his fantasy managers) endured a rough Weeks 5-6, where he managed just 10-12 PPR fantasy points per game despite seeing 18 total targets from Cooper Rush. It sounds like Dak Prescott might return this weekend for a very nice matchup with the Detroit Lions, who allow the most overall fantasy points to opponents, second-most to QBs and eighth-most to wide receivers. Great for Prescott, but really super-great for Lamb, who has proved to be one of his favorite and most reliable targets over the past two seasons. Lamb has been better with Prescott (21 games) than without (17 games) in basically every statistic: targets, receptions, receiving yards, yards per catch and touchdowns. The differences aren’t huge, but they are there. I predict Lamb will have his best game of this season so far against the Lions.
DeAndre Hopkins: Some of us like to take a wait and see approach with a newly traded player, a rookie, or in this case, a player coming off suspension. From his social media presence, we know Hopkins is mentally, and presumably physically, ready to play, but what about team culture? Will coaches ease him in? Some concern is understandable. The Cardinals losing Marquise Brown to an extended injury makes a huge difference here. Even though they acquired Robbie Anderson via trade, let’s be blunt: Anderson is not Hopkins, nor Brown.
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Things aren’t great on the RB front for Arizona either. The Cardinals have struggled on both sides of the ball so far this season and sit at the bottom of the competitive NFC West with a 2-4 record. They need an injection of elite offense and they need it now. Even if it weren’t a rough week for WR byes, this is a smash spot for Hopkins and I would want him in my fantasy lineups for Thursday’s showdown with the Saints. It’s worth noting that although New Orleans is still a good run defense, they allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Expect 10-plus targets for Hopkins and hope for a highlight reel touchdown catch or two.
Tinker With
Davis Mills/Nico Collins: I like to give an idea or two to the SuperFlex or 2QB leaguers out there, and maybe convince those who aren’t enjoying this superior format to make the switch next season. I’m not sure Mills and Collins are the duo to accomplish that, but I do like them to fill in for my decimated rosters this week. The Texans are coming off a divisional win over the Jaguars followed by the bye and are surely looking to keep the positive momentum going in Las Vegas this weekend. The Raiders were also off last week, but enter Week 7 as the most fantasy-friendly QB matchup in the league. They allow the fifth-most overall fantasy points and the fifth-most real points to opponents. In a week where I’m down some serious fantasy fire-power, I’m intrigued by the potential ceiling of this pairing.
Texans WR1 Brandin Cooks has seen single-digit targets in the past three games after starting the season with 10 and 12 targets. Collins has seen his role increase, with essentially the same usage as Cooks in the past two games. Importantly, he’s making some deep catches and racked up significantly more yardage than Cooks in those games. Collins ranked fourth with an average of 20 average air yards in Week 4, and in Week 5, he led the league with 66 percent of the Texans air yards per NextGenStats. Just because we haven’t seen the huge fantasy line materialize yet doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Given how dire things are looking, I’m willing to take this crazy swing instead of making a safer play for a Ryan Tannehill or Marcus Mariota.
Jimmy Garoppolo: The 49ers are back at home, which is good for them, as they are riding a six-game home win streak during which they are averaging 28 points per game. On the road, they are 2-4 with an average 19 points per game in the similar span. What we saw last week with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk all garnering at least 10 targets from Garoppolo, and all finishing with nice fantasy lines, has me excited for the 49ers pass game vs. Kansas City. The Chiefs are many things, but a shut-down defense is not one of them. If Mills’ floor makes you too nervous, and like me, you’re too bored for the likes of Tannehill, I think Garoppolo is a good middle-of-the-road compromise with upside. If you can pair him with one of his receivers who you already roster, I love it.
Kenyan Drake: The Ravens run game has largely been a disappointment relative to expectations, outside of Lamar Jackson, of course. J.K. Dobbins is hurt and it makes sense to get him to 100 percent before sending him back out. Justice Hill is also likely to be out again. That has basically left Drake to do the heavy lifting in the run game. That’s not a huge role, but Drake has looked downright spry at times and Cleveland is the third-best RB matchup for fantasy. The Ravens are decent favorites at home, and this could be a run-heavy game script for Baltimore. Drake is coming off his best game of the season and that, plus the matchup, makes him a possibility for teams that need to do something for RB this week.
(Top photo: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports)
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